Astros Win/300 Wins for Roy?

The Astros cruise to an easy victory today, 8-3 and Roy Oswalt wins his 8th game of the year and 106th game of his career. That number is notable because it tied Roy with Nolan Ryan on the Astros all-time win list. J.R. Richard and Mike Scott are within easy range this year, at 107 and 110 respectively, but it will take him at least another year to catch Joe Niekro (144) and Larry Dierker (137). That got me to wondering about what Roy’s chances are for reaching 300 wins in his career. In the past couple years, he’s been among a group of young pitchers who are mentioned as guys who have a shot to reach that magic number. Some googling turned up this article the Hardball Times from 2004 that paints a pretty bleak picture. Oswalt is currently in his age 29 season, and needs to win over 190 games.

The article has an interesting chart that compares different pitchers’ wins by seasonal age to an average of what Roger Clemens, Tom Seaver and Greg Maddux have done over their careers. By their age 29 season, they’d won an average of 149 games and all went on to pitch into their 40’s. Oswalt is far behind that number and in the past he’s indicated that he may not want to pitch much beyond the end of his current contract (either 2011 or 2012). At this point in his career, Nolan Ryan had won 122 games and his 300th win came at age 43. Assume Oswalt finishes this year with 15 wins (7 more), that puts him at 113. He’d have to average 17 wins a year for 11 years to reach 300, making him 41. Averaging 15 a year would take 13 years. That’s not completely out of the realm of possibility, but it’s unlikely.

n.b. Morgan Ensberg got another 2-RBI hit today, driving in two in the first with a single. When you’re as far down as he is, every little bit helps.


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